From Assumptions to Insights: Customer Discovery That Works

Learning Loop #16 - August 2025

In the previous newsletter, "When Perfect Code Isn't Enough: Test-Driven Business Modelling for Product Success", we explored the reasons why you want to uncover and validate critical business assumptions before investing heavily. We covered the three pillars—desirability, feasibility, and viability—and how to integrate assumptions into your roadmap.

I got an interesting PM on LinkedIn about those ideas 😄

I really liked your post about scientific startups [with test driven business model development], I'm definitely going to read more about it, although it might be different in reality and day 2 day operations :)

This is a crucial question. How do you turn the assumptions-based, test-driven approach into practice?

In this newsletter issue, I'll describe a great approach to uncovering desirability assumptions: the 4 forces framework provides a structured approach to those critical discovery conversations that can validate (or invalidate) your desirability assumptions.

Beyond Feature Comparisons

Many teams focus on competitive feature analysis or requirements gathering to build their roadmap, assuming customers make rational product comparisons. But as I've learned through years of customer discovery work, customers don't just want features - they want progress.

• Think of someone who's missed lunch, has loads of work to do, and is running out of energy. They don't just want something to eat, like a candy bar or so. They want to quickly regain focus and get back to their tasks without disruption.
• Similarly, software teams don't just want better tools—they want progress from "We're constantly firefighting and stressed" to "We can predictably deliver value."
• And government agencies don't just want digital transformation—they want progress from "We're drowning in manual processes and can't respond to citizens quickly enough" to "We have Friday afternoon confidence that our systems will work smoothly."

Every customer switching from the current, "old" way to the "new" way is subject to 4 forces (based on Bob Moesta's framework - co-creator of JTBD alongside Clay Christensen).

The Progress-Making Forces (pushing towards change):

• Push of the Situation - What's broken about their current solution? Nobody moves if they have no incentive to do so...
• Pull of the New Solution - What progress do they hope to achieve? The new way (your solution) must act as a magnet (often among the competition).

The Resistance Forces (keeping them stuck):

• Anxiety of the New Solution - What could go wrong with the change? Each new product, feature or procedure will trigger switching concerns.
• Habits of the Present - What keeps them comfortable with the status quo? Better the devil you know than the devil you don't...

People only switch when progress-making forces are stronger than the forces of resistance.

This framework transforms how you conduct discovery conversations - instead of asking what features customers want, you're uncovering the forces that would compel them to switch (to your offering).

These insights will give you the knowledge to know which functionality matters most and deserves a bigger investment.

A Real-World Example

A while ago, I came across the following LinkedIn comments about the migration from on-prem hosting to public cloud hosting. It is a perfect example of the different forces at play and how we can have the wrong assumptions about them.

The question assumes TCO is the primary driver of change. In the project's reality, TCO was secondary to several other progress-driving forces. TCO was maybe not even measured in detail. In the new situation, infrastructure becomes an enabler for businesses that want to change easily and reliably, rather than operate at the lowest possible cost.

Understanding the forces acting on your product or project will greatly clarify why people do—or do not—switch. And will give you great guidance for your roadmap.

Putting Things into Practice: Using the 4 Forces for Discovery Conversations

Knowing what your (target) customers and users need is the n°1 challenge.
But the hardest question to answer is
"What do you need?"

The 4 forces framework offers inspiration for a list of indirect questions that give you a much better understanding of why people would adopt (or not) your product or new feature.

Uncovering Push Forces:

• "Tell me about the last time your current system caused problems"
• "What prompted you to start looking for alternatives?"
• "What would happen if you continued with your current approach?"

Understanding Pull Forces:

• "If everything worked perfectly, what would that enable your team to do?"
• "How would success be measured in your organisation?"
• "What would be different about how citizens interact with your services?"

Exploring Anxiety Forces:

• "What concerns would your team have about implementing a new solution?"
• "What would need to go wrong for this initiative to be considered a failure?"
• "Who else would need to approve this change, and what would worry them?"

Identifying Habit Forces:

• "What aspects of your current process work well?"
• "What would be hardest for your team to give up?"
• "How have similar changes been received in the past?"

What to Listen For

What you really want is a good understanding of where your target customers are in their thinking cycle.

You may, for example, land on the following combinations:

Strong Push + Clear Pull = High Intent: The customer describes specific, recurring problems and has a concrete vision of improvement.

High Anxiety + Strong Habits = Implementation Challenges: Even if they want to change, you'll need significant support to overcome resistance.

Weak Push + Vague Pull = Not Ready: No matter how good your solution is, they're not in a mindset to switch.

These signals will be gold nuggets to prioritise your features... or give you a (cheap) signal that you need to go back to the drawing board.

An additional benefit - The Power of Anticipating Future Work

There is another plus. Understanding these forces doesn't just validate current demand - the information about anxiety and habits will help you shape your offering beyond the Core product.

You may not need more core features, but

• Comprehensive guides to reduce implementation anxiety
• Structured onboarding to address habit resistance
• Standard contracts and compliance documentation
• Automated ways to move from existing solutions
• Dedicated help during transition periods
• Safety nets that reduce switching anxiety
• ...

This forces-based view reveals that your "product" extends far beyond core features - it includes everything needed to tip the force balance in your favour.

Connecting Back to Test-Driven Business Modelling

The 4 Forces framework is the perfect tool for designing and conducting discovery meetings, one of those minimal experiments I advocated for in the previous newsletter. The discovery conversations raise the confidence levels and allow you to decide whether to proceed with investing or not.

Use the discovery script framework in your next customer conversation. Instead of asking about features or requirements, explore the four forces driving their potential decision.

Happy discovering!!

Further Reading

Unpacking the Progress Making Forces Diagram | Jobs-to-be-Done

Jobs-to-be-DoneChris Spiek

May the forces diagram be with you, always.

Different ways to use the Jobs-to-be-Done “Forces Diagram” outside of product development.

Jobs to be DoneKevin C. Kupillas